Background. Although the number of dentists is an important determinant of supply, other factors also contribute. Technological advancements and well-trained and managed auxiliary personnel affect supply by allowing dentists to produce more dental services per unit of time.
Methods. This article examines trends in dental output, productivity, number of dentists and dental care utilization from 1960 through 1998. The authors estimated growth rates for the entire period and selected subperiods using regression analysis. Growth rates for dentist productivity and per capita utilization are important to estimate the number of active dentists needed in the year 2020.
Results. Based on ADA practice survey data, the annual growth rate in dentists’ productivity was 1.41 percent from 1960 through 1998. However, productivity grew at different rates during this period. It increased 3.95 percent per year from 1960 to 1974. There was a decline in productivity of 0.13 percent annually from 1974 to 1991. From 1991 to 1998, productivity grew 1.05 percent annually.
Conclusions. Accurate estimates of changes in dentist productivity are important in evaluating the adequacy of the number of dentists to meet the demand for dental services.
Practice Implications. Since productivity generally increases over time, failure to account for changes in productivity can lead to an overestimation of the number of dentists required for any given level of demand for dental services.
