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J Am Dent Assoc, Vol 136, No 11, 1522.
© 2005 American Dental Association |
THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET
No one knows for sure, of course. But researchers working on the Pew Internet & American Life Project, an initiative of the Pew Research Center studying the impact of the Internet on life in the United States, were curious to know how those most familiar with the medium felt it might evolve during the next decade.
So in September 2004, Pew undertook a broad-ranging survey of technology leaders, scholars, industry experts and interested members of the public to cull their opinions on the future of the Internet. Some 1,286 people responded to the survey during a one-month period, about one-half of whom Pew refers to as "Internet pioneers" who were online before 1993. In aggregate, their predictions reflect a blend of the optimistic and the dire with healthy doses of both awe and frustration.
Across the board, the survey respondents agreed the sheer ubiquity of the Internet will make it an increasingly attractive target for attack in the future, according to Pew. In fact, some 66 percent felt that at least one devastating attack will occur in the next decade on either the infrastructure of the Internet or the American power grid.
Infrastructure attacks notwithstanding, survey results showed a general consensus that high-speed broadband connectivity will continue to grow as the integration of the Internet into the physical world deepens. Examples will include computing devices embedded in appliances, cars, telephones and even clothing. While such integration will facilitate widespread information sharing, the majority of survey respondents felt increased governmental and corporate surveillance and a blurring of the boundary between work and leisure time may be inevitable consequences.
Social institutions will be affected by the continued growth of the Internet to varying degrees, with news and publishing organizations, educational and health care institutions, and the workplace in general experiencing the most radical changes, according to the survey results.
Will these changes be to our benefit or detriment? It depends on whom you ask. While one respondent felt "the ‘always-on’ Internet, combined with computers talking to computers, will be a more profound transformation of society than what we’ve seen so far," another contended that "the dissemination of information will increasingly become the dissemination of drivel."
In addition to predicting where the Internet will go during the next 10 years, respondents were asked to review the evolution of the medium during the previous decade, noting both pleasant surprises and disappointments.
Many expressed amazement at rapid improvements in search technology, the spread of peer-to-peer networking and phenomena such as Web logging, better known as "blogging." However, they were disappointed that educational institutions have been slow to embrace new technologies and that persistent disparities in access to online resources remain among social and economic groups.
If you’re interested in reading more about the future of the Internet as seen through the eyes of the Pew survey, you can find the complete survey, as well as a database of individual responses on the Imagining the Internet Web site, at "www.elon.edu/predictions".
What will the Internet look like 10 years from now?
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